(Journal Article): Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections
King H, Aubert RE, Herman WH (Division of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland,
kingh@who.ch
)
IN:
Diabetes Care
1998; 21(9):1414-31
Impact Factor(s) of Diabetes Care: 7.071 (2004), 7.501 (2003), 5.477 (2002), 5.404 (2001)
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ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are > or =20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urban-rural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to United Nations population estimates and projections for the number of adults aged > or =20 years in all countries of the world. For developing countries, urban and rural populations were considered separately RESULTS: Prevalence of diabetes in adults worldwide was estimated to be 4.0% in 1995 and to rise to 5.4% by the year 2025. It is higher in developed than in developing countries. The number of adults with diabetes in the world will rise from 135 million in 1995 to 300 million in the year 2025. The major part of this numerical increase will occur in developing countries. There will be a 42% increase, from 51 to 72 million, in the developed countries and a 170% increase, from 84 to 228 million, in the developing countries. Thus, by the year 2025, >75% of people with diabetes will reside in developing countries, as compared with 62% in 1995. The countries with the largest number of people with diabetes are, and will be in the year 2025, India, China, and the U.S. In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45-64 years. In the developed countries, the majority of people with diabetes are aged > or =65 years. This pattern will be accentuated by the year 2025. There are more women than men with diabetes, especially in developed countries. In the future, diabetes will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: This report supports earlier predictions of the epidemic nature of diabetes in the world during the first quarter of the 21st century. It also provides a provisional picture of the characteristics of the epidemic. Worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step toward its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.
TYPE OF PUBLICATION: Original article
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(Journal Article): Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.
Wild S, Roglic G, Green A, Sicree R, King H (Public Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland,
sarah.wild@ed.ac.uk
)
IN:
Diabetes Care
2004; 27(5):1047-1053
Impact Factor(s) of Diabetes Care: 7.071 (2004), 7.501 (2003), 5.477 (2002), 5.404 (2001)
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations' population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
TYPE OF PUBLICATION: Original article
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